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December 6, 2008
By Zainab Morbiwala
Images Retail
December 2008
THE HISTORY OF CATALOGUE RETAILING IS INTERESTING. WHAT BEGAN OUT OF NECESSITY, SOON DEVELOPED INTO A CHANNEL OFFERING CONVENIENCE OF SHOPPING FROM HOME. WITH THE TREND OF CATALOGUE RETAILING YET TO GAIN MOMENTUM IN INDIA, MOST RETAILERS – STILL FOCUSSED ON THE BRICK AND MORTAR FORMAT- ARE YET TO FULLY EXPLOIT THE TRUE POTENTIAL OF THE MEDIUM.
THE ROOTS
As the name suggests, Catalogue retailing is a non-store retail
format where the retail offering is communicated through a
catalogue to the consumers. Mail-order catalogues debuted
in 1856 when Orvis began selling fishing gear in USA. In 1872,
Aaron Montgomery Ward made an arrangement with the National
Grange, America’s largest farming organisation, to offer 163
items of merchandise under ‘The Original Wholesale Grange
Supply House’. Ward’s catalogue was followed by one published
by Richard Waren Sears, who started selling watches in 1886
through mail-order business. Elaborates Devangshu
Dutta, CEO, Third Eyesight, “Catalogue retailing evolved
in the west to meet the needs of far-flung towns and rural
settlements since regular retail stores could not be established
or profitably run in each area.
Since then, catalogues and other forms of non-store retailing including television and the internet marketing have evolved in different markets.
Adds Dutta, “Very often, retailers use catalogues as a complementary channel to store retailing. UK’s Argos, now also in India, evolved its unique catalogue-stores, that turned the model upside-down, making physical stores a walk-in opportunity for the much bigger catalogue from which customers could place orders.” Sharing the success of Argos UK, Andrew Levermore, CEO, HyperCity, says, “Argos UK has annual sales of close to 2.6 billion Pounds annually and the catalogue is present in over 70 per cent of UK homes.”
INDIA STORY
It has been only about 10 months since the launch of Argos
in Mumbai. HyperCity Retail India Ltd, along with Shopper’s
Stop Ltd, entered into a franchise agreement with Home Retail
Group, UK, to offer a unique multi-channel shopping experience
under HyperCity Argos. Currently operational only in Mumbai,
the concept will be introduced across India when HyperCity
debuts in other parts of the country. Talking about the HyperCity
Argos operation, Levermore says, “For us it is the retailing
of products through the medium of a book with more than 300
pages, listing over 4,000 products. Catalogue retailing is
‘not’ a promotional leaflet of a few pages that is inserted
in the newspaper. It still requires the customer to visit
a physical store to purchase the product.” Apart from
HyperCity Argos, there is Lovy Khoslfs Elvy, which offers
high-end home decor and interior products through a catalogue.
An offshoot of export major, Stalwart Creations, Elvy introduced
a mail-order catalogue in India three years ago. While HyperCity
Argos’ catalogue is currently restricted to the customers
in Mumbai, Elvy facilitates customers across India to place
orders through their catalogue. Kh9sla says, “Catalogue
retailing in India did not really exist when Elvy started
out. It was very demanding’ and a very challenging task. We
had to be thorough with our processes to meet the high expectations
of our customers. “Prior to Argos and Elvy, Otto Burlington
was operational in the Indian market (about 15-17 years ago)
with Catalogue Burlington. Despite being a pioneer in India
and popular in UK, it was phased out very soon. Explaining
the reasons for Burlington’s failure, Khosla says, “The
three infrastructural properties required to support catalogue
retailing – effective telecommunication, easy mode of payments
(e.g. credit cards) and a structured distribution set-up –
were not in place.” Dutta observes, “Catalogue management
sciences are probably not being applied effectively. The shopping
dynamics and the operational success factors differ in home
shopping and physical stores.”
PHYSICAL PRESENCE
It is interesting to observe that both HyperCity Argos and
Elvy have their standalone stores as well. Shares Levermore,
“Having store presence cements the brand in the consumer’s
eye and allows the customer to feel the product. When starting
out, store presence ensures credibility and safety in the
consumer mind.” The catalogue stores of HyperCity Argos
offer customers the facility to browse through the catalogue
and view the products before making the purchase. High involvement
and high investment products across categories such as furniture,
technology, jewellery etc. are available on display. Customers
also get to see other products at the special viewing and
demonstration areas in the store. Sharing whether catalogue
retailing can survive without a physical store, Khosla feels,
“Yes, it possibly can. However, it might take longer
to penetrate the larger database present in the country. For
us, a combination of both works.” Commenting on the catalogue
design, Levermore says, “There is much science around
this and can be learned only with years of experimentation.”
As for Elvy, Khosla has made sure to bring out a catalogue
based on international standards. Both Elvy and HyperCity
Argos launch their catalogues every six months.
INTERNATIONAL PERSPECTIVE
According to Khosla, the resistance to catalogue shopping
is much higher in India than in any other country. “We
need to work much harder to build a comfort level for our
customers.” Adds Levermore, “For the Indian consumer,
going out for shopping is still very much a leisure activity
as there is little competition for leisure in the form of
sports clubs or parks. In the West, shopping is often seen
as a necessary but somewhat painful experience. This will
evolve to be the case in India, but only eventually.”
CHALLENGES
According to Dutta, the primary challenge to successful
catalogue retailing is logistics. “Merchandising, space
management, frequency of mailings, offers and promotions need
to be managed differently. But possibly the biggest challenge
is logistics. Most modern retailers in India are still establishing
their logistics framework around the country; and their entry
into catalogue retail would take the complexity to a whole
new level. Not to underestimate the issue of handling returns.
In fashion merchandise, for instance, catalogues can run a
return rate of as high as 40 per cent in some products,”
he points out. Pumendu Kumar, associate VP, Technopak
Advisors, says, “Any kind of non-store retailing, of
which catalogue is also a part, is based on the credibility
of the seller. The second thing is the range of products being
offered and its prices vis-à-vis the market operating
price. Unless the retailers are established as strong retail
brands, customers will not be very experimental with catalogue
retailing. And since prices change constantly in India, printing
of catalogues at regular frequency is also a challenge.”
Samar Singh Sheikhawat, VP-marketing, Spencer’s Retail Ltd,
underlines the two key challenges, “Lack of domestic
expertise to run catalogue retailing as a function, and the
right merchandise – stock needs to be available to run catalogue
retailing as a profitable business proposition and the right
category of product needs to be chosen for this format.”
GETTING IT RIGHT
Levermore feels that furniture and large-ticket appliances
are the strongest categories for this type of retail. Khosla,
on the other hand, believes that as long as the customers
have confidence in the brand, the movement of a specific product
category is of no relevance. “For a brand to be a part
of a catalogue, it must fit the target consumer profile, offer
products that fit the assortment and should be able to deliver
sufficient margin for the retailer to be profitable,”
Levermore states. Dutta observes, “Brands internationally
consider catalogues as a retail environment, which is in someone
else’s control – so while the additional market footprint
is welcome, the margins could be lower and the brand’s image
is impacted by other brands in the catalogue.” Giving
a brand’s perspective on being a part of HyperCity Argos’s
catalogue, Nilotpal Mrinal, brand manager, Remington, says,
“Argos is Remington’s largest catalogue retail partner
in the UK. We are happy to work with them in India too. However,
the concept of catalogue retailing is yet to take shape in
India to the levels where it can contribute a considerable
share to Remington.”
FUTURE EDITIONS
Technopak Advisors’ Kumat asserts that the catalogue business
in India will have higher potential in the years to come.
“The key enabling factors will include: customers having
less time for shopping, established retail brands, better
customer service etc. As the Indian market is spread over
a large geography, brands can target thousands of consumers
through a catalogue.“
Dutta adds, “Product integrity, predictability, and customer service are key success factors at the ‘frontend’. Customer service needs to be process and systems-driven. And with so many BPOs today, India is probably better geared for back-end customer service infrastructure and management practices to support catalogue retailing. From the point of view of standardisation, products such as mobile phones or durables meet the criterion of standardisation but price dynamics vary hugely – a catalogue can become non-competitive as soon as it is launched.” Levermore feels that India is still very much in the experimental stage and it will not be not possible to clearly predict the model’s full potential for some time.
Sharing suggestions for those in the business of catalogue retailing, Dutta says, “Most Indian retail catalogues have the look-feel of a business-to-business order guide, with a limited grid layout and no excitement! If retailers want to succeed with a catalogue, they should consider it as much a living environment as a physical retail store. In fact, it is a bigger challenge to create a catalogue that is as dynamic and alive as the store itself, considering that the customer’s only interaction with the brand are the pages.” Kumar’s checklist of do’s and don’ts for retailers reads as: “Do’s – price benchmarking with the market, good product range, dynamic catalogue, delivery on time and after-sales service; Don’ts – focus only on building the catalogue without proper attention to fulfilment.”
admin
December 5, 2008
By Aniruddha Basu
MUMBAI (Reuters)
Friday December 5, 2008
Textile companies may not benefit much from the rupee’s weakness as a slump in global demand and prior currency hedges trim bottomlines in an industry dominated by exports, officials said.
The partially convertible rupee has fallen almost 21 percent in 2008 and hit a record low of 50.65 rupee against the U.S. dollar on Tuesday. But demand from some large retailers overseas has slowed, company executives added.
"Because of the recession, what is happening is that demand for products are going down," said Jayesh Shah, chief financial officer, at apparel maker Arvind Ltd, which gets half its revenue from exports to the United States and Europe.
Export growth "this year is going to be flat ..next year, its too early to predict," he said, adding he will wait for a clearer picture on demand trends from the West to emerge after Christmas, but is not expecting any growth in exports for FY09.
Others like Bangalore-based apparel exporter Gokaldas Exports have hedged currency risk till early 2009, leaving them with little gains from the rupee’s recent drop.
"Most of the exporters have done forex hedging forward covers, so we are not being able to encash on present rupee levels," said Gokaldas’ Managing Director Rajendra Hinduja.
"In a month or two when people finish their exposures a rupee at this level will definitely help. We will finish our exposure by Feb-March," he added.
Mumbai-based textiles maker Alok Industries which has not "hedged substantially" before is looking to hedge at the rupee’s current levels, said its Chief Financial Officer Sunil Khandelwal.
CREDIT WOES
However, the global credit crisis, which triggered the rupee’s fall in the first place, is also leading to slump in global textile demand.
"The weak rupee hasn’t really given us any advantage, when the rupee became weak, came the subprime crisis," Gokaldas’ Hinduja said, adding that the industry’s exports could drop 15-20 percent this year.
India’s total textile exports for the fiscal year ended March 2008 stood at $22 billion, below the government’s stated target of $25.06 billion.
"The general prediction is that orders would slow down because retail market is not doing too well," Arvind’s Shah said.
The worldwide slowdown has prompted buyers at retail chains to tighten inventory management and slow buying, said Devangshu Dutta, Chief Executive Officer of Third Eyesight, a consultant to textile and retail firms.
"The main fall-outs of this are that they cut back on quantities or delay order placement to closer to the season," he added.
Alok Industries’ Khandelwal said some players may benefit from the recession as US retailers would seek to consolidate their sourcing by choosing fewer vendors.
But Indian firms would have to make products more price competitive as the product mix in the US and European markets have shifted towards cheaper ones, he said.
To cut down their procurement costs the retailers would want to negotiate bulk orders at bulk prices, Arvind’s Shah said
"We may be able to reduce prices…but that may not necessarily result in increased exports," he added.
admin
November 16, 2008
In 1998, Stan Davis and Christopher Meyer, two collaborators of the Ernst & Young Centre for Business Innovation, wrote a groundbreaking book under the title: ‘BLUR. The speed of change in the connected economy.’ The authors defined blur as ‘the accelerating pace of change of our post-modern economy’. They wrote: “Because we are so newly caught up in the whirlwind of this transition, we are experiencing it as a blur.” In the meantime, in some business circles, ‘BLUR’ has acquired the status of a cult book. Raving about this book may be exaggerated, but its main message is certainly worth to be pondered on: three forces, also called the ‘trinity’ of the blur -speed, connectivity and intangibles- are setting the new rules of doing business!
What could ‘speed, connectivity and intangibles’ mean for the garment sector and especially for the sourcing activity?
Speed!
In their book, Davis and Meyer refer to Benetton, which gained
fame for engineering a sourcing system so seamless it cut
months out of the traditional supply chain. Speed was the
driver. And because the company could tie its production to
retail activity, it kept the hottest items in stock and was
left with little to unload in end-of-season sales. Not mentioned
in BLUR, but presently even more successful ‘speed performers’
than Benetton are the champions of ‘lean retailing’, such
as Zara/Inditex and Hennes & Mauritz.
However, ‘lean retailing’, a business model that centres on quick response, low inventory costs, rapid-moving stock and transferring responsibility for inventory management to suppliers, is not only a question of speed, it’s as well a question of connectivity. In the broader sense of the word, connectivity is putting everybody and everything in connection in one way or another. (In a more narrow sense, connectivity is the ability to make products that link electronically to information bases, an ability that might be displayed at the next Avantex fair in Frankfurt).
Be connected
A company with a great record in terms of ‘connectivity’ is
the Sri-Lanka based company MAS Holdings, whose ambition it
is to become world leader in the intimate apparel sector.
MAS is engaged in a number of enterprises in several countries,
all of which are joint ventures with at least one other party.
Over the years the company has devoted itself to a thoughtful
supply chain architecture.
In the field of fabric and clothing sourcing, many sourcing operators (manufacturers, retailers, agents) are increasingly eager to be connected globally. Sourcing fairs which continue frustrating their visitors’ desire for global connection (e.g. by excluding the offer of non-European suppliers) are understandably losing interest. Not surprisingly, Texworld in Paris and Intertex in Milan, international sourcing events aimed at textile manufacturers from non-European countries, have grown rapidly. These fairs are complementing respectively Première Vision in Paris and Moda In Tessuto in Milan, thus creating temporarily in both cities the ‘global search machines’ the outsourcing companies want.
Another sourcing event that has grown rapidly by becoming global is Fatex in Paris. A few years ago, this annual clothing manufacture and sourcing trade fair was an exclusively French affair (with French exhibitors only). Then the organisers decided to open up onto the international area. In 2000, 103 foreign exhibitors moved in. In November 2001, foreign presence doubled to 207, or 42% of the total number of exhibitors (not even included the 47 French companies with delocalised units). From 2002 on, Fatex will adopt a seasonal rhythm, organising a spring and an autumn edition, simultaneously with the private label fashion fair Intersélection.
That especially the leading Western clothing companies want to be connected globally doesn’t mean they are playing around on the globe like young kittens. Devangshu Dutta, ex-KSA-consultant and co-founder and director of the supply chains solutions company Creatnet Services Ltd recently pointed out that in the 1990s a scientific sourcing principle began to be applied. It was good to cut down supplier numbers, since this reduced the management effort on the part of the buyer to constantly look for new suppliers and maintain current relationships. Devangshu Dutta thinks that the supply base consolidation has gone a step too far. He’s pleading a new deal. Outsourcing companies should acknowledge that the business of clothing retailing needs a healthy balance between predictability and innovation. Buyers should make a mental division between ‘largely predictable products’ and ‘fashion products’. For ‘largely predictable products’, supply base hopping is almost certainly the wrong strategy to follow. On the other hand, putting a long-term commitment on any significant proportion of the fashion segment to specific suppliers can be counter-productive. The competitiveness of supply bases is changing all the time, and suppliers are constantly developing new capabilities around the world. Therefore, buyers should keep their doors open for new suppliers to walk in and display their capability.
Focus on value-creating ‘intangibles’
The Ernst & Young fellows Davis and Meyer admit that ‘intangibles’,
the third component of ‘blur’ is not a brand new element of
the economy. The intangibles have, in fact, grown quietly
as part of the economy, without calling too much attention
to themselves. The authors mention four types of intangibles:
services, information, the service component of products and
emotions. They pretend that every offer has both tangible
and intangible economic value. However, the intangible is
growing faster. The outsourcing of the clothing manufacturing
activities can be seen as an effort to move away from the
tangibles in order to concentrate on the intangibles.
In 1997, Sara Lee Corporation (Wonderbra, Champion Sportswear, Hanes underwear,…) announced it was embarking on a massive ‘de-verticalisation’ program. Chairman and CEO John H. Bryan explained the decision this way: “Our de-verticalisation program is designed to enable us to focus our energies and talents on the greatest value-creating activities in our business, which is building and managing leadership brands.” The first de-verticalisation transaction to be completed by Sara Lee was the divestiture of nine yarn and textile operations related to its United States products business to newly-formed National Textiles, LLC.
About Nike, Davis and Meyer wrote: “Nike became the leader in its industry by keeping all kinds of traditional capital off its balance sheet, putting it in the hands of the suppliers instead. Nike’s own value-producing capacity is its design capabilities, marketing acumen, positioning, and distribution channels. Together, these accumulate into intangible strengths that yield much higher returns than would traditional capital investments.”
Also Naomi Klein, the author of ‘No Logo: Taking Aim at the Brand Bullies’ and her likes assert that in the new global economy, brands represent a huge portion of the value of a company and, increasingly, its biggest source of profits. Therefore, they say, companies are eager to switch from producing products to marketing aspirations, images and lifestyles. They are trying to become weightless, shedding physical assets by shifting production from their own factories in the first world to other people’s in the third. However, Naomi Klein’s outraged claim that consumers are being manipulated by big corporations and their brands appears to be a one-sided opinion. Surely, brands have influence on the behaviour of the consumer, but the contrary is also true. Often, consumers dictate to companies and ultimately decide their fate. As an example, Nike has had to revamp its whole supply chain after being accused of running sweatshops. Managing ‘intangibles’ such as brands is becoming increasingly difficult. Annual tables of the world’s top brands, which used to change little from year to year, now show that many brands are falling from grace and that newer, nimbler ones are replacing them. Not only companies, also countries have to carefully administer their ‘intangibles’. Outsourcing clothing retailers and manufacturers tend to favour sourcing from countries that they are already familiar with. However, if they fall out of love with a country, it’s extremely difficult to coax them again into new business. This has been the fate of Yugoslavia under president Milosevic. Though Yugoslavia can presently offer the former European customers of its once flourishing CMT-industry a pretty low salary level, a well educated workforce, rapid land and air connection, an improved human rights situation and a sufficient level of political and economic stability, very few traditional customers did yet return.
admin
November 5, 2008
By K G Narendranath,
ECONOMIC TIMES Bureau
DELHI, 5 Nov 2008
Much before the index of industrial production (IIP) showed a big decline (IIP grew just 1.3% in August against 10.9% a year ago and 7.4% in the previous month), the production data from the textile industry indicated a slump.
IIP had risen 8.1% in 2007-08 but during the year, major textile groups reported dismal growth figures—wool , silk and manmade fibre textiles grew just 4.2%, cotton textiles 4.1% and textile products (which includes garments), a more tepid 3.3%.
As per textile ministry data, spun yarn output increased 4% in 2007-08 and cloth production, 3.9%. These figures compare poorly with the corresponding figures in the previous two three years. Available official data for this fiscal indicate the growth might have slipped further.
The global financial crisis has undermined the viability of India’s textile and clothing (TC) players’ business, according to the Confederation of Indian Textile Industry or Citi. With a serious contraction in both export and domestic demand and a pervasive liquidity crunch, many units are already gasping for breath.
Those units which had hoped to come out of a financial morass with the help of the RBI-mandated CDR (corporate debt restructuring) have recently begun defaulting on even the restructured loans. This situation, according to the industry body, would aggravate by December.
As CDR tag would hit the rating of these companies, they
would find it nearly impossible to get new loans to get their
business going. (Think of their predicament when there is
anyway a severe credit squeeze).
The textile industry is one of the few industries in India
that are “export weighted”.About 55% of the domestic
textile production, loosely valued at $40 billion, is exported.
As per latest data, India’s TC exports to US have declined
1.5% in January-August this year, bucking the trend of 10-15
% annual increase in exports in the last three-four years.
“We expect September-October data to be more dismal,”
says an industry official.
“The global financial crisis has hit TC industry hard since USA, EU and Japan are our largest markets. Our textile exports are already faltering and there are reports of more and more importers and retailers closing operations in all developing countries,” says Citi in a note.
There are other problems too, like the 40% increase in MSP (minimum support price) for cotton in October-September 2008-09 season, even as there is likely be a glut in the market — cotton production this season is estimated to be a good 322 lakh bales and export prospects are dim.
The government’s procurement agency, Cotton Corporation of India, would not be able to procure such quantities because of infrastructure constraints. The global fall in prices of petrochemicals like PTA, polyester filament yarn and staple fibre would not suffice to offset the MSP-induced spike in cotton prices.
The only solace is the depreciation of rupee but it is of
no great help given the export demand slump.
Citi has therefore a few demands : cut the interest rate on
working capital loans for purchase of cotton to 7%, reduce
margin money to be provided by mills for working capital for
purchase of cotton to 10% from 25% and increase the period
for which working capital loan is provided for purchase of
cotton from 3-4 months to 9 months.
According to a recent study by Third Eyesight, a consulting firm, “Indian exporters are now trying to increase their share in the EU market and diversify into other markets other than the US. However, the market scenario in most major global markets is looking grim in the short-term.”
Unless decisive policy action is taken, India’s grand plans to catch up with China, which has established a domineering presence in the global textile markets, might also go awry. As per the study, “Given the current market share positions, it is unrealistic to expect India to catch up with China any time soon.”
However, the trend is clearly towards re-integration of India’s industry with the global trade,” the Third Eyesight qualified its assertion in the study titled ‘Eternal hope to reality’.
Though the dollar’s appreciation against the rupee in recent months should have brought a breather to exporters, the benefit of a weaker rupee has been offset by the surge in costs and global economic slowdown.
According to the study, textile companies’ margins are under severe pressure due to rising costs of raw materials, fuel, real estate and more expensive credit. The investment binge that was seen in this industry for the last two-three years— assisted by the soft-loan scheme called TUFS— has almost come to an end.
Partly, this is due to the general credit squeeze, but specific problems faced by the textile industry in terms of cost escalation and difficult competition in global markets also contributed to drying up of new investment proposals.
External developments also worked towards the detriment of textile and garment exporters. Many competitors have been strengthened by government incentives. For example, China has increased Vat refund rates from 9% to 13% for synthetic textiles and from 11% to 13% for other textiles.
If one has to look at the long-term competitiveness of India textile exports, the disconcerting reality is that the export basket at present consists of raw materials and intermediates rather than finished products.
Clearly, there is a need for more investments in the weak
links of the textile manufacturing chain like weaving and
processing. This would enable the domestic industry which
is fairly integrated and supported by a rich and diversified
raw material base, to win its spurs. Policymakers must pay
heed and come out with incentive schemes.
admin
September 15, 2008
In the simplest terms, sourcing entails “buying a product”. So presumably, if you have the need for a product and know the cost at which you want to buy it, and you can find someone who can sell it to you, it should be a straightforward transaction. What happens in reality is often somewhat different.
The Sourcing Process
You start with a product in mind, with certain specifications. You build certain sales projections based on past performance, forecasts etc., you evaluate supply bases, select one or more suppliers, factor in a logistical plan to get the product from your supplier to your distribution centre or stores, manage the communications, often including information technology to control the 2-way flow of information, and finally hope to achieve the margins that you had planned for. That may well happen, but equally there is all possibility that it might not. On the supplier’s end, equally, the customer’s sales forecasts might not be achieved which might lead to reduced order quantities, the logistics provider might delay or even lose your entire shipment, causing claims, or even loss of a customer.So is a sourcing relationship a gamble?
“Sourcing” is made up of two elements, both of which contribute to the success or failure:Global Business Trends
Let us look at what the trends in global business are. One the retail side, three major trends are clearly visible: cross-border retailing is growing, retail consolidation is increasing, and retailers are opting for multiple formats to reach their customers. All of these changes are prompted by the objective of maximising the “consumer ownership” – either by accessing new consumers (in other countries or in a different market segment) or accessing the same consumer who might express different needs at different times. These three major trends are even becoming visible in the same retailer, for example:
Each trend places a different set of demands on the sourcing and supply strategies and structures. For example, cross-border moves create the need for multiple supply bases, due to differential production costs as well as import regulations, and also highlight the need to manage increasing logistical complexity. If a supplier is to keep pace with its major customers, it must be able to service them in multiple locations equally well.
Consolidation through mergers and acquisitions creates the opportunities for economies of scale, brings out the need for large, well-equipped suppliers, but also provides the opportunity for supplier rationalisation, which can be a threat to the business of suppliers who may not appear among the list of the “best” suppliers for the newly merged retail business.
Format migration creates different service needs for the same retail customer; for example, a high street retailer who normally has only marginal merchandise returns might face the need to handle as much as 15-30% returns on a new catalogue or internet business. Different formats, or different markets can also require product diversification due to different sizes, or different price-quality norms.
Global Trade Trends
On the other hand, on the trade side, there have been significant shifts in terms of trade agreements such as transitioning of the GATT to WTO, which promises lower import barriers (quotas, duties) and regional agreements such as NAFTA, which are collectively leading to encouraging trade across borders.
There is an increasing availability of new low cost supply
bases in close proximity to the major markets (such as Mexico
for North America, and Central Europe and North Africa for Western
Europe) where export growth is booming, creating serious competition
for the well-established trade routes such as Asia to North
America and Western Europe, or intra-EU trade.
| Table 1. Cross
Border Apparel Trade |
||
| 1997 Trade (billion US$) |
1990-97 Compounded Annual Growth Rate | |
| Traditional Global Flows | ||
| Intra-Western Europe | 44.2 | 2% |
| Asia to W. Europe | 19.4 | 5% |
| Asia to North America | 29.1 | 5% |
| Total | 92.7 | 3% |
| “New” Regional Flows | ||
| E. Europe and N. Africa to W. Europe | 7.7 | 22% |
| Intra-Asia | 21.5 | 14% |
| Mex. & Latin America to N. America | 11.3 | 22% |
| Total | 40.5 | 17% |
The trend towards cross-border trade is clearly visible, particularly in the US and EU, where imports have gained market share from domestic production. In the EU’s case domestic production, while still higher than imports in terms of share, has actually declined since 1990. USA sourcing shifts point towards a clearly dominant share of sourcing from within the Americas, and indicate a growth of a “Free Trade Area of the Americas” (FTAA) from the NAFTA concept. This would clearly serve the domestic industry’s competitive purposes as well, since production elsewhere in the Americas could be either owned or closely controlled by US manufacturers.
The EU, on the other hand, seems to be diversifying its supply base. While Eastern Europe and North Africa have come up quickly in the recent years, Asia maintains and is growing a dominant share, with many other bases expanding or appearing, such as the Indian subcontinent and new supply countries in South East Asia.
How Should You Respond?
So what should be your response in terms of future business strategy? First of all some fundamental shifts must be made in thinking about sourcing and supply.
If you are a buyer or a sourcing executive, understand that:A study done by the global consulting firm, Kurt Salmon Associates, calculated that for every new country that you move into, a trial order of 10,000 pieces would cost an additional US$ 42,500 in terms of supplier identification, development, product development, quality assurance etc. – that is over $4 a piece. Is every new opportunity worth that cost? Will you be able to gain adequate margins over significant volumes that will make the initial investment pay for itself? Will the new supply country be able to offer an extensive enough production base that go beyond the first products that you have looked at? And even, could the country actually become a market for you in the future (in which case it makes eminent sense to develop it as a supply base)?
To be most effective in the emerging scenario, look for sourcing platforms or “hubs”: countries and supply bases that not only are strong suppliers right now, but those that can serve as launch-pads to enter other countries. These platforms or hubs are typified by being located amidst many other potential supply bases, they possess intrinsic skills to develop product and manage production, and have access to a variety of raw material, both local and imported. Rather than making the buyer hop countries every time there is a problem or a new opportunity due to lower cost, the hubs allows the buyer to concentrate efforts in a region, develop that supply base consistently over a number of seasons or years, while leaving the low cost or new product opportunities open in other countries in the proximity.
Understand costs completely: these include not only the primary product cost, freight and import duties, but also financial costs (e.g. Letters of Credit, financial administration etc.), cost of quality assurance, remote business management costs etc. Further, the drivers need to go beyond primary cost, market access and quotas, and must take into account measures such as “realised margins”, responsiveness and match with customer proposition.
Low labour cost supply bases exist even close to the major markets now – so is Bucharest better or Bangalore? The answer lies in looking beyond costs alone. What capabilities do you possess within your organisation, and what do you want from your supply base? The more product development, supply management and service capability you can build within your own organisation, the greater the number of potential supply bases. Typically, with a highly developed sourcing organisation you would be able to tap into more low labour cost supply bases.
Three key areas define business focus: Price, Product and Service. Each demands a different approach to the customer, and therefore to sourcing and supply. A price-orientation focusses on efficiency, a product-orientation on innovation and product development, while a service-orientation focusses on reliability and responsiveness. You need to determine what combination of these factors determines your positioning in the competitive marketplace.
Also understand that traditional sourcing, based on seasonal patterns and long, variable lead-times are giving way to new methods. Companies increasingly need to classify their products as core products, seasonal products and fashion products. Core products tend to be basic staple items that provide large amounts of business over long periods of time – the focus in these clearly needs to be on planning, replenishment and efficient, cost-effective, consistent supply. Fashion products on the other hand have a very short selling window, and must be developed and brought to the market quickly – their value is in their newness and their being in the market at the right time – the focus here clearly must be on speed in product development and production.
Research indicates that major companies are indicating a shift in their sourcing from traditional seasonal patterns to replenishment-type of sourcing and “speed” sourcing. Have you analysed your own product range and adapted your sourcing accordingly? If you are a supplier you also need to understand these issues, and must adapt your business strategy suitably. Or else you run the risk of losing your business to a lower cost or more responsive competitor, who might either be next door, or half-way across the globe.
The key to survival in the new millennium clearly lies in:To do so, it is imperative to put in place all the building blocks: appropriate management structures, business performance measures, business processes, training and skill development, information technology and supply chain relationships. Ignoring any of these building blocks will only result in a shaky foundation for future business.
