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July 12, 2026
Nivedita Mookerji, Business Standard
12 Jul 2026
Recently, fast moving consumer goods distributors posed some existential questions to the government: Have the rules changed for foreign-owned ecommerce firms? With that, the All India Consumer Products Distribution Federation made a plea to the government to examine if foreign-funded ecommerce and quick commerce players can run inventory-led businesses through warehouses and dark stores.
The question mark is around the operating model of the big daddies of retail — both from America — under the current foreign direct investment (FDI) guidelines. One of them is Bentonville-headquartered Walmart, which holds a controlling stake in e-commerce major Flipkart. And the other is Seattle-based Amazon. Both Flipkart and Amazon are upping their quick commerce play, a development that the Indian retail ecosystem players fear would hit them hard.
For context, foreign e-commerce companies are allowed to do business through the marketplace model as opposed to the inventory-led format. Marketplace operators such as Amazon and Flipkart (Walmart) are permitted to have sellers on their platforms and those sellers own the goods (inventory) which are sold to customers. Indian companies in the e-commerce business can own the goods and sell them directly to the consumers.
This is not the first time that there’s noise around the business practices of foreign majors and their alleged violations of the rulebook in relation to anything from the legality of the operating model to predatory pricing and deep discounting. The protests of the domestic traders against foreign players — that started decades ago with an agitation against the government’s multi-brand retail policy — have resulted in a series of amendments in the FDI rules, intervention of the competition watchdog CCI (Competition Commission of India), Supreme Court observations, making of laws and keeping them in abeyance. But, the complaints — from different quarters of the domestic business — have remained.
Devangshu Dutta, founder and CEO of consulting firm Third Eyesight, argued that since 1996-97, when foreign investment in retail was first banned, governments of different political hues have been walking the regulatory tightrope with respect to foreign investment in retail, whether offline or online. “The government’s caution on retail policy was aimed at protecting domestic interests, though it is arguable whether it was for the small retailer, or the larger corporates who had identified this as a growth sector at the time,’’ Dutta said.
(Published in Business Standard)
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July 9, 2026
Neethi Lisa Rojan & Vaeshnavi Kasthuril, MINT
Mumbai/Bengaluru, 8 July 2026
The collapse of the US-Iran peace deal in less than a month has rattled India’s consumer sector, reviving fears that higher oil prices and fresh supply-chain disruptions could squeeze demand just as companies were betting on a broader recovery.
The renewed uncertainty followed US President Donald Trump’s declaration on Wednesday that the peace deal with Iran was effectively over, alongside Washington’s decision to end a sanctions waiver on Iranian energy supplies. The market reaction was swift. The Nifty FMCG Index fell 2.49% on Wednesday, underperforming the broader market as all 15 constituents declined, led by Dabur India, Hindustan Unilever, and Tata Consumer Products, whose shares fell 3-4% each. The benchmark Nifty50 ended 2.12% lower after renewed hostilities in West Asia pushed crude prices higher.
Executives and analysts said companies have little room to respond immediately, leaving them to closely monitor devel opments as risks to costs and consumer spending mount. “I don’t think companies can react on this kind of a short notice,” said Arvind Singhal, chairman of consulting firm The Knowledge Company. “It takes 2-6 months to make any change in your plans and strategy. I think right now the Indian FMCG (fast moving consumer goods) companies will be watching the progress of monsoon more carefully than the Strait of Hormuz.”
Even after the US-Iran peace deal took effect on 18 June, consumer companies were unlikely to have expected immediate relief, analysts said.
“While everyone hoped for a cessation in hostilities, smart management teams would work on the realistic expectation that even with a ceasefire, pent-up supply chain input costs need to be absorbed over time, and pricing plans must be factored accordingly,” Devangshu Dutta, founder and chief executive of consulting firm Third Eyesight, said.
“Given that the conflict zone is active, I don’t think there is any immediate likelihood of pricing freeze or reductions, even though demand in rural areas as well as in lower-income urban segments is likely to be hit from both sides ― earnings and expenses.”
Large consumer goods companies including Dabur, Emami and Godrej Consumer had recently told investors they remained confident about consumer demand, including in rural markets.
But the renewed rise in crude prices, coupled with erratic monsoons marked by rainfall deficit in some regions and flooding in others, threatens to complicate that outlook. Higher fuel costs could lift prices of crude-linked raw materials such as plastic packaging and ingredients used in soaps and creams, while persistent inflation could push consumers to cut discretionary apne ding and trade down even on staples.
Major consumer companies had already raised prices or reduced grammage across packaged food, beverages and personal care products in the March quarter.
“As far as the crude prices are concerned, that is probably the only variable where the government has to decide as far as pricing of crude or the petroleum in India is concerned,” Singhal said.
That comes at an awkward time for India’s largest consumer companies, including Hindustan Unilever, which had earlier this year told analysts they intended to drive growth through higher volumes rather than price increases. A renewed bout of inflation could undermine that strategy.
(Published in MINT)
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June 12, 2026
Aanya Thakur & Writankar Mukherjee, Economic Times
12 June 2026, Mumbai/Kolkata
India’s leading retail chains have seen the share of e-commerce in total sales either remain flat or edge up by a sluggish 1-2 percentage points over the past four-five years despite a sustained push towards omnichannel retailing.
An ET analysis of eight major retailers-market leader Reliance Retail, Shoppers Stop, Westside, Arvind Fashions, DMart, Spencer’s Retail, Pantaloons and Bata-showed that the contribution of e-commerce to overall revenue has seen minuscule improvement since 2021-22 even as online sales continue to increase in absolute terms. By contrast, the Covid-19 pandemic spurred explosive growth, with the share of digital sales in total revenue surging three to four times in 2020-21 and 2021-22.
Industry executives attribute the slowdown partly to lower investment levels compared with pure-play digital firms such as Amazon, Flipkart, Swiggy and Blinkit-parent Eternal. Besides, retailers have consistently maintained that they will not pursue online growth at the expense of profitability, keeping prices largely aligned across online and offline channels.
The ET study found Tata-owned Westside’s online contribution stood at 7% in 2021-22 and thereafter remained around 6% till 2025-26. Reliance Retail’s online share ranged between 17% and 19% during the period, while Bata’s remained at 10-12%.
For DMart, e-commerce accounted for 5-6% of sales, while Shoppers Stop’s online arm, Shoppers Stop.Com (India) Ltd, contributed less than 1% to the consolidated revenue between 2021-22 and 2024-25. The company has not disclosed 2025-26 online sales figures yet.
“The DNA of these retailers is rooted in the physical world-infrastructure, processes and systems are not inherently designed for e-commerce, which requires a different operating model,” said Devangshu Dutta, chief executive of consultancy Third Eyesight.
“Most retailers calling themselves omnichannel are effectively multi-channel. Online retail is capital-intensive and hyper-competitive. Given the significant scope for physical store expansion, especially in tier-2 and tier-3 cities, retailers are reluctant to invest aggressively online,” he said.
Even so, Avenue Supermarts, which runs DMart, invested Rs 150 crore in online grocery platform DMart Ready this week, following a Rs 174-crore infusion a year earlier.
By comparison, Eternal infused Rs 2,600 crore into Blinkit in 2025 and another Rs 450 crore in March this year. Similarly, Swiggy approved a Rs 1,000-crore investment in supply-chain subsidiary Scootsy last year as both companies expanded their dark-store networks.
The chief executive of Aditya Birla-owned departmental chain Pantaloons, Sangeeta Tanwani, recently told analysts that online sales accounted for just 3-4% of the business. She said the company had earlier refrained from investing in the channel because profitability remained elusive.
“But over the last year, we called out omnichannel as one of our priorities… The reason why we had paused that business was because we wanted to make sure that we can get the unit economics right and make this business profitable… With all the shifts we have made this year, we feel confident of scaling up this business,” Tanwani said.
Reliance Retail, meanwhile, reported lower earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortisation (EBITDA) margin growth in both the January-March quarter and entire 2025-26 as investments in quick commerce weighed on profitability. Chief financial officer Dinesh Taluja recently told analysts that margins depend on the pace at which online and business-to-business segments grow relative to the core offline business.
“If we slow down online growth, margins will improve. It is a mix as far as the online business continues to grow faster,” he had said.
An industry executive said the online contribution may go up modestly in this financial year due to high investment in scaling up dark stores for quick commerce.
Queries emailed to Reliance Retail did not elicit a response till press time. The company had in December last year appointed former Flipkart executive Jeyandran Venugopal as its new chief executive for the retail business.
(Published in Economic Times)
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May 27, 2026
Writankar Mukherjee and Aanya Thakur, Economic Times
Kolkata/Mumbai, 27 May 2026
Quick commerce has become the dominant online sales channel for India’s top fast-moving consumer goods (FMCG) companies, with Dabur India and Britannia Industries among others now deriving up to 75% of their digital sales from 10-minute delivery platforms.
Industry executives said quick commerce is reshaping consumer buying habits and increasingly cannibalising sales from all other channels, including ecommerce platforms, modern trade and kirana stores, even as large online marketplaces and retailers expand into the segment.
Latest data from companies including ITC Ltd, AWL Agri Business, Tata Consumer Products and Parle Products showed quick commerce accounted for 60-75% of their total online sales in FY26, rising sharply from less than half a year earlier.
For Britannia and Tata Consumer Products, quick commerce now contributes more than 70% of online sales, while the share climbed to 75% for Dabur in the fourth quarter ended March from 50% in the December quarter.
Executives said expanding assortments and demand for instant replenishment are accelerating the shift. “Quick commerce has been gaining ground with several ecommerce companies such as BigBasket, Amazon and Flipkart, as well as retail chains like Reliance Retail, entering the space,” said Mayank Shah, vice-president at leading biscuits maker Parle Products. “Given consumers’ demand for convenience and immediate replenishment, quick commerce has emerged as a strong growth opportunity for them.”
Quick commerce accounted for 65% of online sales of Parle Products and AWL Agri Business last fiscal, compared with 50% and 45%, respectively, in FY25. ITC derived 58% of its online sales from this channel in FY26.
Frequent Purchases
Grocery-shopping are now centred around frequent top-up purchases through the week.
“Quick commerce has facilitated a grocery shopping habit which already existed – more frequent purchases. These companies are now also looking to improve profitability by expanding into higher-margin and impulse-driven categories,” said Devangshu Dutta, founder and CEO of Third Eyesight, a consultancy in consumer space.
While the channel is already significant for FMCG companies in the top 8-10 cities, it is expanding rapidly into smaller towns as operators such as Blinkit, Zepto and Swiggy Instamart widen their footprint.
Premium Push
The channel has also allowed companies to push premium products, executives said.
“While on marketplaces and traditional e-commerce platforms we were heavily skewed towards staples, the shift to q-commerce is helping us premiumise our assortment and sell far more indulgent categories,” Britannia Industries chief commercial officer Vipin Kataria told analysts earlier this month.
The transition has led to a threefold increase in sales of adjacency categories for the biscuits and dairy products maker, he said.
Kataria expects quick commerce’s contribution to the company’s total online sales to rise to 85% from 70% currently.
Most FMCG companies reported 70-100% year-on-year growth in quick commerce sales in FY26, making it the fastest-growing channel for the industry for the past two to three years. Executives expect the trend to continue.
Dabur India global chief executive officer Mohit Malhotra said beverages, foods, personal care and home care are currently the strongest-performing categories in this channel.
Saugata Gupta, managing director of Marico, said quick commerce is likely to be especially dominant in foods, while specialised ecommerce players such as Myntra and Nykaa remain strong in personal care.
The maker of Parachute, Saffola and Livon brands is strengthening its quick commerce supply chain through digitisation, automation and AI-based forecasting, Gupta said.
(Published in Economic Times)
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May 15, 2026
The ET Now Swadesh panel discussion focussed on the dual challenge facing the Indian economy: a weakening rupee and rising crude oil prices, which together are driving “imported inflation” and straining household budgets. Devangshu Dutta (Founder, Third Eyesight) put forth the following key points during the discussion (the video link is under the text summary below):
1. Dual Impact on Industry and Consumers:
2. Vulnerability of Small Businesses (SMEs):
3. Income vs. Expenditure Strain:
4. Ripple Effect of Crude Oil Beyond Logistics:
5. Shifts in Consumer Spending Patterns & “Shrinkflation”:
The panel noted that while the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) has adequate foreign exchange reserves to defend the rupee temporarily, the definitive solution relies heavily on the cooling down of global geopolitical tensions (such as the Middle East conflict affecting the Strait of Hormuz). Until then, Indian consumers will need careful financial planning and smart spending adjustments to navigate this inflationary phase. [Video below.]
