admin
September 1, 2026
Vikash Tripathi, Outlook Business
1 September 2026
Eight decades ago, the ‘nationalist businessman’ GD Birla helped prepare the ‘Bombay Plan’, which asked the state to pro-vide for the bare minimum needs of its people. His plan asked for 2,800 calories of well-balanced food per day, 30 yards of clothing per year and 100sq ft of housing per person.
Today, seventh-generation Aryaman Vikram Birla is betting on an entirely different opportunity: premium dining. “We continue to believe in the remarkable potential of the premium casual dining space, spurred by rising disposable income and evolving lifestyles,” the 29-year-old said after Aditya Birla New Age Hospitality acquired KA Hospitality in 2023.
The Birlas are not alone in trying to cash-in on rising prosperity in India. In the past five years alone, India’s top 10 industrial groups have announced new ventures in consumer-facing sectors or doubled down on existing ones. A rough tally of these investments crosses ₹4.8 lakh crore.
For decades, these same business houses built their dominance in core sectors like steel, power, aluminium, cement and chemicals, laying the industrial backbone of the economy. This helped the nation become a large producer of such goods and, in some cases, an exporter as well.
But as India’s economic conditions changed, so has the focus of its largest conglomerates.
For the likes of Tata, Aditya Birla, Bajaj and Bharti, that journey started way back. “What has changed in recent years is the speed and openness of the amount of capital being invested,” says Jitender Kumar, associate professor and programme chairperson, retail management programme at Birla Institute of Management Technology.
“It is not ‘opportunistic’ reasons, it’s structural reasons.”
Two factors seem to be driving the shift: the first is the arrival of an affluent consuming class that can buy branded and premium goods, and the second is the attraction of consumer businesses as a way to diversify revenue and, in some cases, improve the quality of earnings.
The Rise of Affluence
A couple of decades ago, if an Indian household had some extra cash, it often meant buying more of the same. Today, it increasingly means buying better. Even salt is being upgraded, from iodised to Himalayan pink or rock salt. The same shift is visible in bigger purchases: sports utility vehicles (SUVs) over hatchbacks, and ₹1cr-plus homes over budget flats.
But India isn’t simply consuming more. It is moving from basic consumption towards discretionary, branded and premium consumption. This boom is most clearly seen in the rapid expansion of the financial infrastructure that enables consumption. Formal retail credit penetration has more than doubled over the past decade, according to a TransUnion Cibil report, driven largely by personal loans, credit cards and consumer durable loans. Meanwhile, the government-backed Unified Payments Interface has untethered spending from the cash in a buyer’s wallet.
The signs show up across the broader consumption economy. Homes priced above ₹1cr accounted for 54% of total sales in 2025, up from just 30% in 2023—the market that decorative paints and home solutions are chasing.
Out of 4.7mn cars sold in the financial year 2025–26, SUVs accounted for more than half.
“The consumer market has grown substantially—not only through rising incomes but also the dramatic expansion of branded consumption across product verticals,” says Devangshu Dutta, founder of management-consulting firm Third Eyesight.
The bets are also getting more varied, from Reliance Retail tying up with global brands like Fenty and Skims to the Bharti Group bringing Olive Garden to India.
The Lure of Returns
For a passenger walking through an airport, the flight is only one part of the journey. There is coffee before boarding, food between flights, a lounge, retail outlets, parking and a host of other things to spend money on. For Adani Airports, those non-aero businesses are increasingly becoming the more lucrative part.
Its non-aero operations already generate about ₹2,500cr, with returns in the high-20% range, against roughly 12% from regulated aeronautical operations.
Jeet Adani, director of Adani Airport Holdings, expects the share of aeronautical revenue to fall to around 10% of total revenue, with non-aero becoming the bigger growth driver. The motivation can be seen as an escape from a return ceiling as much as a bet on rising affluence.
As Kumar puts it, consumer businesses help the conglomerates in two major ways. First, they help insulate them from volatile and often punishing commodity cycles, and second, they often offer far better returns with lower capital intensity and faster cash conversion.
Reliance Industries (RIL) shows how significant that shift can become. By 2025–26, its consumer-facing arms, Jio Platforms, Reliance Retail Ventures and Reliance Consumer Products, together contributed over 40% of group revenue and nearly 60% of operating profit.
And there is another advantage. “A small business, when it wants to build a new venture, faces constant margin pressure and often has to build its supply chain from scratch. A large conglomerate can leverage its existing scale, infrastructure and supply chain to enter a new business far more efficiently,” explains Kranthi Bathini, equity strategist at WealthMills Securities.
Different Strokes
In chasing consumers, some conglomerates are following the fastest-growing categories, while others are using their existing industrial capabilities to enter consumer-facing businesses. One is trying to build an entire ecosystem around it. But the lines between these approaches are not always clean.
Tatas is doing both: building entirely new consumer brands while also using the industrial ecosystem it has built over decades.
For Tatas, the consumer opportunity has largely been about following where spending is moving. Their consumer ventures have followed this arc longest. It began decades ago with Lakmé (1952), Tata Tea (1962) and Titan (1984). Tanishq and the expansion of Trent under brands such as Zudio are only the latest examples.
At Tata Consumer Products, once largely a staples business built around salt, tea and pulses, the focus has been shifting towards value-added foods and beverages, with ₹7,000cr spent on the acquisitions of Capital Foods and Organic India in 2024. Across companies such as Tata Digital, Indian Hotels, Air India and Tata Motors Passenger Vehicles, the group has announced close to ₹93,180cr in investment over the past five years.
Aditya Birla’s jewellery chain Indriya and its move into premium hospitality belong to the same category of ‘pull-based’ diversification.
JSW is taking a different route. It is taking its existing industrial strengths one step closer to the buyer. The group, which has traditionally been focused on areas such as steel, energy and cement, has expanded into consumer-facing areas such as auto, paints and home solutions.
It launched JSW Paints in 2019, and acquired a controlling stake in paintmaker AkzoNobel India for ₹8,986cr last year. Its strategy is to leverage an established network of contractors, dealers, architects and builders to reach consumers.
The same strategy can be seen in its push into autos, acquiring a 35% stake in the Indian unit of China’s MG Motor in 2024, leveraging synergies with its established steel business.
At Tatas, too, group companies like Tata Steel, Tata Power, Tata AutoComp, Tata Technologies and TCS are doing significant businesses with Tata Motors.
Adani is also using an asset it already controls to move further into the consumer’s wallet. Adani Airports announced a ₹20,000cr investment in June to develop hotels, retail, entertainment and commercial infrastructure around its eight airports, and has signed hotel management agreements with IHG Hotels & Resorts for five hotels. City-side developments could contribute 30–40% of Adani Airport Holdings’ non-aero revenue.
Yet another example of the extension strategy is Aditya Birla Group’s attempt to diversify from cement, metals and textiles into decorative paints with Birla Opus.
RIL took a different approach: trying to connect multiple consumer businesses into one ecosystem. It expanded its retail network through new formats and acquisitions, added brands and partnerships, and then built a consumer-goods business around acquisitions such as Campa Cola and Lotus Chocolate.
That expansion was helped by billions of dollars raised by both Jio Infocomm and Retail Ventures from foreign investors in 2020. The group now plans to spend another ₹8,000cr expanding consumer goods manufacturing. The advantage of having that kind of scale is clear. If RIL has Ajio at a mall and, next to it, GAP and Herschel, it can negotiate better rental terms.
For conglomerates, Kumar points out, the next level of competition will not be based on investment, “but on the ability to create different consumer experiences, foster innovation and create lasting brand loyalty through the integration of these capabilities”.
Can Scale Win?
When Reliance Fresh opened its first stores in 2006, it was part of a rush by some of India’s biggest business groups to crack organised retail. Aditya Birla Group, RP-Sanjiv Goenka Group’s Spencer’s and Kishore Biyani’s Future Group were all betting that organised retail could transform the way Indians shopped. What followed was years of experimentation, losses and, for some, eventual retreat.
Birlas essentially gave up on grocery retail after a decade of heavy losses and exited entirely.
Future was pushed into insolvency after a controversial ₹24,713cr deal with RIL. Spencer’s is still trying to find its footing, with ₹249.33cr in net losses in 2025–26.
Conglomerates may have deeper pockets, but that does not automatically make them better at selling to consumers. India has seen some of those bets fail or take years to work. And even among today’s biggest players, the results are still mixed.
Tata Sons has been in this segment longer than the Ambanis, yet its consumer businesses still make up less than 40% of its total revenue —a share that has not changed since 2020.
These groups have what most standalone consumer companies don’t: capital, distribution, infrastructure, brands, scale.
But winning consumers takes something else entirely—reading what people want, building brands, innovating fast and earning loyalty.
“In B2B [business to business], it’s about manufacturing at scale, getting your costs down. Then you can compete. In B2C [business to consumer], it’s all about the product. With the right product at the right price, you have a chance to win in the market,” Parth Jindal, managing director of JSW Cement and JSW Paints, told Outlook Business in 2025.
Tata Sons’ chairman N Chandrasekaran hit the same wall while revamping the group’s consumer unit. “I have the money. But I don’t have the team to run it,” he had told Sunil D’Souza while hiring him to lead Tata Consumer Products in 2020.
Reliance and Tatas have had the longest head start, but even their journeys show how difficult it is to turn scale and capital into consumer businesses. Birla, JSW and Adani are now trying to make that transition in their own ways.
A longer tail—Bajaj in hospitals, L&T in retail finance and education, Mahindra in insurance and hospitality, Murugappa in electric mobility—is playing it safer, going deeper into what it already owns rather than chasing new categories.
What ties them together is a bet on consumers buying not just more but better, and on those consumers being worth more per rupee of capital than the industrial customers who built these houses.
The prize is growing, but so is the competition. Capital and scale may get these conglomerates through the door. They won’t guarantee a seat at the table.
(Published in Outlook Business)
admin
May 15, 2026
The ET Now Swadesh panel discussion focussed on the dual challenge facing the Indian economy: a weakening rupee and rising crude oil prices, which together are driving “imported inflation” and straining household budgets. Devangshu Dutta (Founder, Third Eyesight) put forth the following key points during the discussion (the video link is under the text summary below):
1. Dual Impact on Industry and Consumers:
2. Vulnerability of Small Businesses (SMEs):
3. Income vs. Expenditure Strain:
4. Ripple Effect of Crude Oil Beyond Logistics:
5. Shifts in Consumer Spending Patterns & “Shrinkflation”:
The panel noted that while the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) has adequate foreign exchange reserves to defend the rupee temporarily, the definitive solution relies heavily on the cooling down of global geopolitical tensions (such as the Middle East conflict affecting the Strait of Hormuz). Until then, Indian consumers will need careful financial planning and smart spending adjustments to navigate this inflationary phase. [Video below.]
admin
January 31, 2026
Surabhi Prasad, Business Today
Print Edition: 01 Feb, 2026
The last two years—2024 and, more notably, 2025—saw a wave of protests by a new generation of students and young professionals looking for political change, better economic conditions and more climate awareness across countries, including Bangladesh, Nepal, Indonesia and the Maldives.
But beyond these uprisings, Gen Z, the term used to describe those born in late 1990s to the early part of the 2010s and currently aged around 13-29 years, are not only questioning but also bringing forth changes in societal norms and economic behaviour. It’s not just a generation gap!
Gen Z are digital natives. They are tech savvy, have grown up with Internet in their homes, iPads as their support system, social media as a constant companion and take digital payments, online and quick commerce for granted. They tend to be night owls, the real gigsters, at home with artificial intelligence (AI) and machine learning, and with a lingo—cap, salty, suss and tea—that make others scratch their heads.
They also have newer challenges—rising unemployment, an uncertain economic environment, the rise of AI that has put a question mark on the future of work, climate change that is turning more real by the day, and skyrocketing real estate prices that mean a dream home could remain just a dream. Still, they are the rising consumer force who, over the next decade, are poised to become the largest chunk of the labour force and the focus of most companies.
For a country like India that is still young, Gen Z will soon be the economic force to reckon with. A recent report by not-for-profit think tank People Research on India’s Consumer Economy (PRICE) estimates that as of 2025, nearly one in five young individuals globally lives in India. “This is a formidable 420-million strong force, constituting approximately 29% of the nation’s total population, and made up of individuals aged between 15 and 29 as defined by India’s National Youth Policy (2014),” it said.
Labour sociologist Ellina Samantroy, Fellow at the V.V. Giri National Labour Institute, says India’s expanding Gen Z or youth workforce offers a significant opportunity for the country to reap the demographic dividend. As per the recent Periodic Labour Force Survey 2023-24, around 46.5% of the labour force is in the 15-29 age group. “There has been an increase in labour force participation in this age group from 42% during 2021-22. One can see the economic growth potential of this cohort,” she says.
However, with transitions and emerging opportunities in the world of work, it is important to harness the potential of this population cohort with adequate access to education and skilling, she says.
Devangshu Dutta, founder and chief executive of Third Eyesight, a boutique management consulting firm focused on the retail and consumer products ecosystem, says Indian Gen Z consumers are not a uniform cohort.
“A critical issue in India is the coexistence of aspiration and constraint, and India’s Gen Z are shaped by a mix of high digital exposure and wide economic disparity. While they are ambitious and globally aware, their purchasing power varies sharply across segments and locations,” he says.
Further, urban, higher-income Gen Z display global consumption behaviours such as brand experimentation, social commerce and premium aspiration, whereas a large proportion of Gen Z in Tier II, Tier III and rural India is highly value-driven and necessity-led, while drawing their inspiration from global and national sources. He also points out that unlike Millennials, Indian Gen Z are also entering the workforce in a more uncertain economic environment, making price sensitivity, smaller pack sizes and flexible payment options important. “Employment patterns such as informal jobs, gig work and delayed income stability are influencing consumption cycles and brand loyalty,” he says. There is a strong preference for digital discovery, vernacular content and peer-led recommendations, with trust built through community and relevance rather than legacy brand status.
Rising aspirations of Indian households and changes in consumption pattern with a marked move from essentials to more premium products have been well documented, most recently in Household Consumption Expenditure Surveys. But more granular, individual-level data from PRICE shows marked changes in education levels and behaviour of Gen Z and other cohorts such as Millennials (those aged between 30 and 45), Gen X (aged 45-60) and Baby Boomers (60+). A 2024 PRICE ICE 360 Survey of 8,200 respondents (18–70 years) in 25 major cities showed that Gen Z is the most educated cohort, spends the most time browsing the Internet and is more engaged with e-commerce and paid digital services.
Multinational and domestic companies are also now waking up to the Gen Z wave and are realising that they need to review strategies to gain the attention and loyalty of Gen Z as consumers and workers.
“Fashion, beauty and personal care, food and beverages, and mobile and consumer electronics are at the forefront of change in India,” says Dutta. Responding to Gen Z requirements, companies are designing products at accessible price points, expanding entry-level ranges and leveraging sachetisation and subscription models. Brands are investing more in regional languages, local influencers and platforms such as short-video and social commerce channels that resonate with young Indian consumers, he says.
But this process is still at a nascent stage, and many companies and analysts are still trying to assess this generation.
For the 34th Anniversary Issue, we at Business Today decided to decode what Gen Z is truly about, what influences them the most, what they aspire to purchase, what they can afford and what this means for India Inc. Over the course of the last few months, our newsroom saw animated discussions as senior editors sat down with younger colleagues to discuss lifestyle choices, brand loyalties and career ambitions, as we drafted an issue brief and a potential survey.
We then got in touch with PRICE, which worked with us on our survey objectives and tweaked the questionnaire. The result—a first-of-its-kind exercise where PRICE surveyed 4,311 Gen Z respondents, who are now entering the workforce with an income of their own, residing in metros and Tier II cities. The survey covered gender, education, employment status, personal income and household income classes. The main focus was urban, educated Gen-Z who has the income to be a strong consumer.
The research examined consumption behaviour across discretionary and essential categories, savings and credit attitudes, digital influence, brand loyalty, aspirations, and future spending intent.
And the results are indeed, surprising! The survey reveals that traditional consumption models that were built around age-based life stages, linear career progression and early credit adoption no longer hold for Gen Z. “This cohort’s behaviour reflects early exposure to economic shocks, greater career volatility and a redefinition of success away from speed toward resilience,” it underlines.
For businesses, misreading delayed demand as permanent weakness risks underinvestment just as Gen Z approaches its next consumption inflection, it warns. For financial services, premature credit push without trust-building will underperform. For consumer brands, price-led acquisition without quality consistency will fail to convert into lifetime value.
Delve into this issue where BT brings to you the in-depth findings of the survey and explains what this means for companies as they vie for a share of this growing consumer segment. Gen Z is not just about rizz and drip, it is giving the main character energy as they come of age.
(Published in Business Today, issue dated 1 February 2026)
admin
November 4, 2025
Yash Bhatia, IMPACT
4 November 2025
It started with groceries. Quick commerce started delivering milk, bread, and eggs in 10–15 minutes, which seemed revolutionary enough in 2022. Then came the iPhone 14 launch, and suddenly, quick commerce wasn’t just about convenience; it was about spectacle. Overnight, India’s app-based delivery ecosystem became the stage for a new ritual: flagship products arriving at your doorstep faster than you can say ‘checkout.’
And now? Phones aren’t the limit. You can even order motorcycles online. Yes, motorcycles. Royal Enfield has partnered with Flipkart to list its entire 350cc portfolio, which will be delivered to five cities: Bengaluru, Gurugram, Kolkata, Lucknow, and Mumbai.
The lines between e-commerce and quick commerce are becoming increasingly blurred. Flipkart’s Flipkart Minutes and Amazon’s instant delivery options are proof that speed is no longer a differentiator; it’s table stakes. And as platforms race to expand, high-ticket items are joining the frenzy, from electronics and furniture to watches, fitness equipment, and premium kitchen appliances. For platforms, these products are goldmines of margin; the challenge lies in logistics and consumer trust.
According to a report by CareEdge Advisory, India had over 270 million online shoppers in 2024, making it the second-largest e-retail user base globally, while the e-commerce market grew 23.8% in 2024 over the year-ago period, it said. The report also added that Indians ordered Rs 64,000 crore of goods from quick-commerce platforms.
From the consumer standpoint, one of the challenges for consumers to buy high-ticket items from the quick commerce platforms is to get consumer trust, which used to be the case when e-commerce started its operations. Can quick commerce move to high-ticket items? Is quick commerce looking at these items as a branding exercise, or are they looking at them as a serious revenue stream channel?
Chirag Taneja, Founder & CEO, GoKwik – an e-commerce enablement platform, says what began as a branding exercise for D2C brands has now evolved into a credible revenue stream. “In the early days, high-ticket categories on D2C platforms saw limited traction,” he explains. “Trust was still being built, customers were unsure if their orders would even reach them. There were many friction points.”
But that’s no longer the case. According to GoKwik’s network data, high-ticket purchases (above ₹2,500) are no longer outliers, they’re becoming a consistent driver of topline revenue.
Interestingly, most of these premium purchases are powered by credit instruments from no-cost EMIs to instant credit options at checkout. “This reflects a clear shift in mindset,” says Taneja. “Consumers no longer view high-value spending as a financial strain. They see it as a set of manageable, bite-sized payments that help them aspire higher, quicker. It’s not just a financial enabler, it’s a psychological unlock that makes premium consumption feel accessible and routine,” he adds.
“With strong trust in delivery reliability, smooth returns, and credible brand backing, the ecosystem has bridged the gap that once kept premium shopping offline,” says Taneja.
Devangshu Dutta, Founder of a specialist consulting firm, Third Eyesight, thinks differently and points out that high-value items still make up a small slice of quick commerce sales. “The model thrives on simplicity, a limited product range on the platform’s end, and quick, low-friction decision-making on the consumer’s,” he explains.
That said, Dutta believes quick commerce can still play a strategic role for premium brands. “For high-value products, q-comm can be an excellent lever for driving velocity, testing market response, or amplifying brand visibility. But it should be viewed as one piece of the channel mix, not the primary sales driver.”
From the platform’s perspective, however, listing high-ticket products brings its own upside. “They create excitement, boost average transaction values, and improve realised margins,” Dutta notes. “Consumers are often drawn in by novelty, exclusivity, or status appeal, especially during big launches or limited-time promotions.”
Still, he adds a note of realism: “Premium and high-ticket purchases largely remain planned decisions. Most consumers continue to prefer established offline and e-commerce channels for such buys where trust in authenticity, return policies, and after-sales services still carry greater weight than instant gratification.”
Seshu Kumar Tirumala, Chief Buying and Merchandising Officer, BigBasket, says the company doesn’t look at electronics as a high-ticket item category but rather focuses on building a complete category experience for customers. “For example, if we list an Enfield bike, we’d also want to offer spare parts, servicing options, and extended warranties, because that’s how the category functions,” he explains.
Tirumala adds that BigBasket adopted the same approach when it ventured into mobiles and mobile accessories. “When we launched this category last year, it was a trial. Today, it’s a sizable part of our business,” he says. Currently, electronics and mobile accessories contribute 5–10% of BigBasket’s monthly sales, having grown 250–300% year-on-year since the first iPhone launch on the platform.
While the launch day drives the highest demand for flagship devices like the iPhone, Tirumala notes that the following one to two months see strong accessory sales, from AirPods and headphones to chargers and power banks. “On average, mobiles and accessories account for 7–8% of our total sales, peaking at 10% during the festive season. Overall, this category has grown from zero to 7–8% of our total business in just a year, and we expect it to reach around 25% next year,” he adds.
Currently, the platform offers select models from smartphone brands, including OnePlus, Realme, Redmi, Vivo, and Oppo.
The Bengaluru-based platform is now piloting the delivery of large home appliances across across select city areas in partnership with Croma. If successful, BigBasket plans to expand this model to other cities, further broadening its quick commerce offering beyond everyday essentials.
Taneja points out that the traditional e-commerce model, once driven by discounts and affordability, is now evolving toward experience and access. Over the next few years, two major shifts will shape this transformation: credit-first commerce, where EMIs become the default mode for premium purchases, and aspirational commerce, where consumers view e-commerce as the easiest path to lifestyle upgrades. Consequently, platforms will need to reposition themselves from being “where you save more” to “where you unlock more”, prioritising personalisation, trust, and a seamless shopping experience.
As quick commerce matures, it is no longer just about instant gratification; it’s becoming a bridge between aspiration and accessibility.
Platforms are proving that speed, trust, and seamless experience can coexist with high-value purchases.
(Published in IMPACT)
admin
September 3, 2025
Aakriti Bansal, Medianama
3 September 2025
The Goods and Services Tax (GST) overhaul simplifies India’s tax structure and lowers prices for many goods. However, for e-commerce sellers, the change arrives at the worst possible moment. Platforms and sellers must adjust billing systems, invoices, and inventory records just as the festive season begins.
The festive period drives the highest order volumes of the year, and even minor disruptions in invoicing or compliance ripple through the system. Refunds get delayed, seller–platform relations strain, consumers face frustration, and penalties under GST law escalate. Moreover, the episode shows the fragility of India’s e-commerce compliance infrastructure.
Larger sellers can rely on manpower and technology, but smaller businesses remain disproportionately exposed. Platforms, meanwhile, cannot act as neutral intermediaries when their invoicing systems directly control seller compliance. The question now is whether the government, platforms, and sellers can move fast enough to make structural reforms without turning them into seasonal flashpoints.
What’s the News?
The GST Council, chaired by Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman, is meeting today and tomorrow (September 3–4), according to a report by Hindustan Times, to decide on a major overhaul of India’s tax system. The timing has already unsettled e-commerce. Platforms like Amazon, Flipkart, and Meesho are holding back on announcing festive sale dates, while sellers report uncertainty about how to handle inventory already billed at old rates.
Shoppers are delaying big-ticket purchases such as smartphones, televisions, and appliances, creating a visible slowdown in demand. Retailers are carrying higher stock levels, waiting to recalibrate pricing once the Council clarifies the new slabs. The pause comes just before the festive sales period, which typically contributes about a quarter of annual revenues for e-commerce platforms.
What the GST Reforms Are
The government has proposed collapsing the four-tier GST structure of 5%, 12%, 18%, and 28% into two slabs of 5% and 18%. A new 40% tier would apply to luxury and sin goods, replacing the existing compensation-cess mechanism.
If the Council approves, several categories will see rate changes. White goods such as washing machines, air-conditioners, smartphones, refrigerators, and televisions would move from 28% to 18%. Small petrol cars and motorcycles would also shift from 28% to 18%. Essentials including ghee, nuts, namkeen, packaged drinking water, and medical devices would drop from 12% to 5%. Everyday consumer products like toothpaste, shampoo, soap, and ready-to-eat foods would also move into the 5% bracket.
The 40% tier would target high-end cars, premium electric vehicles, tobacco, and pan masala. States have pushed back, warning of revenue losses, and discussions are underway on whether higher levies on luxury items or cess surpluses can offset the shortfall.
Implementation Challenges
Satish Meena of Datum Intelligence, a market research firm, flagged the absence of a transition window as “very tricky.” “Everyone wants to make the change because this is the peak sale time,” Meena explained. “But the challenge is how it will be implemented for goods already in warehouses. Once inventory has moved from the company to the warehouse under the old GST, how will you pass on the benefit to the customer?”
Devangshu Dutta, chief executive of Third Eyesight, a retail consulting firm, pointed to similar risks. “Sellers will need to rapidly adjust pricing strategies and inventory details, keeping in mind that the festive season is upon us,” Dutta explained. “One would hope that the changeover of rates doesn’t create supply unpredictability in this critical season.”
Abhishek A. Rastogi, founder of Rastogi Chambers, a law firm specialising in indirect tax and regulatory matters, warned about compliance fallout.“From a compliance perspective, the biggest challenge will be ensuring real-time alignment between product listings, tax rates, and invoices generated. Even a minor mismatch in billing, particularly during the high-volume festive season, could result in serious exposure,” Rastogi said.
Impact on Smaller Sellers
Experts agreed that smaller sellers carry the heaviest burden. “Larger sellers with manpower and technology will cope faster. Smaller sellers will face particular challenges,” Meena noted.
Dutta explained why smaller businesses feel the squeeze. “Businesses of all sizes face the burden of compliance and accurate reporting, but smaller businesses feel the impact disproportionately as their management resources are far more limited. Often it is the owner-manager, the most critical human resource in a small business, whose time gets sucked into ensuring the changes go through smoothly,” he said.
Moreover, Rastogi advised small sellers to act defensively. “Smaller sellers must ensure they maintain proper records of their communications with platforms, raise tickets on billing mismatches, and document tax advice received. Such proactive record-keeping will protect them if litigation arises later. They should also consider contractual safeguards when signing with platforms,” he said.
Platforms Under Pressure
Platforms also operate under strain. Meena pointed out that festive sales remain unannounced. “Typically, the sales should be in the week of October 13–14, or the following week. That has not been announced till now because of this GST issue,” he said.
Dutta argued that platforms must step in to steady sellers. “Sales, inventory, and return reconciliation is an ongoing issue and potential point of dissatisfaction among sellers. To avoid adding to this, e-commerce platforms need to provide enhanced seller support to smooth out the turbulence during the GST changeover,” he said.
Rastogi underlined that platforms share liability. “Legally, the burden to discharge GST liability lies on the seller. However, given that invoicing systems are often managed by e-commerce platforms, there is a shared responsibility to ensure the correct GST rate is applied. Any platform-level error that causes sellers to become non-compliant could become a contentious issue,” he explained.
He also laid out remedies. “Sellers impacted due to platform-level glitches can seek remedies under contract law and indemnity clauses in their agreements with the platform. They may also explore legal recourse if non-compliance is triggered without their fault. Ultimately, disputes of this nature will test how liability is apportioned between sellers and platforms,” Rastogi mentioned.
Consumer and Market Effects
The uncertainty already shapes consumer behaviour. “There is already a decline in demand over the last two weeks as customers are delaying purchases, waiting for festive discounts,” Meena observed. “If sales are pushed too close to Diwali, customers may move to offline stores where delivery is immediate and pricing on appliances can match e-commerce.”
Notably, Dutta pointed out that offline businesses could benefit. “Small offline businesses that don’t have GST numbers and don’t need to compile GST returns may be able to quickly benefit from lower input costs and may be able to become more price competitive,” he said.
Need for Government Clarity
Both Dutta and Rastogi called for immediate guidance.
Dutta warned that reforms must not create “supply unpredictability in this critical season.”
Rastogi pressed for intervention. “There is a strong case for the government to issue clarificatory circulars or transitional relief, particularly given the festive season volumes. Without such guidance, both sellers and platforms face a high risk of disputes, and the compliance ecosystem may be overburdened,” he noted.
Why It Matters
The GST reforms land as festive season spending sets the direction for the retail year. E-commerce platforms draw about a quarter of their annual revenues during this period, and sellers use these weeks to recover margins. Datum Intelligence estimates that online shoppers will spend around Rs. 1,20,000 crore in 2025, up 27% from 2024, with quick commerce taking 12% of that share. At this scale, even small invoicing or compliance errors can lock up billions of rupees in disputed sales.
The reforms already shape consumer behaviour. Shoppers hold back purchases while they wait for clarity on tax rates, and platforms face pressure to adjust quickly. If festive sales move closer to Diwali, buyers may switch to offline stores that match appliance prices and provide immediate delivery.
The rollout will show whether platforms and sellers manage a nationwide tax change in the middle of their busiest season or allow it to disrupt India’s largest online retail channel.
(Published in Medianama)
